The output of crude oil production is not frozen-actv

Crude oil output freeze is not equivalent to production reduction, after the closed door meeting in Doha, crude oil prices fluctuate sharply at the bottom of the interval, the volatility increased significantly. However, the author believes that the yield of freezing is not equal to the production, the actual effect is limited, plus refinery spring maintenance, crude oil market fundamentals did not show substantial improvement. The yield effect on Thursday the freezing protocol Co. closed door meeting ended, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Qatar, Russia agreed to production will be frozen in 1 June 11 level, and said Russia and other oil producers negotiations will end on June 1 3. Subsequently, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and other oil producing countries have expressed support for the output freeze agreement. However, it is worth noting that, although Iran and Libya claim to support the agreement, they all have preconditions for recovery to pre – or pre war levels. The yield of freezing protocol with limited effect, mainly embodied in two aspects: first, the market had expected 2016 OPEC main variable increment from Iran and Libya, according to the attitude of the two countries at present, there is still potential increment of 1 million barrels a day, can fill the decline in crude oil production department; second, at the end of January, OPEC and Russia oil production is at a historical high, if the output standard for the January 11th level freeze, in fact almost no production. Therefore, the yield freeze more influence the confidence of the market in Iran and Libya, unless the indefinite condition to yield the freeze, otherwise the global crude oil supply is still in a relaxed state. North American production effect at the end of the two quarter will be reflected from the North American oil production enterprise capital expenditure and drilling investment situation, in 2016, to cut capital spending occur frequently, which directly led to a significant decline in the number of drilling. As of February 18th, the number of crude oil rigs in the United States has declined from 1590 in 2014 to 413 units. In addition, in the past 25 weeks, the number of drilling has declined in 23 weeks, with a total decline of more than 70%. Affected, U.S. crude oil production fell to 9 million 130 thousand barrels a day near. Taking into account the decline in the number of transfer to the production drilling usually takes 8 months, is the end of the two quarter of U.S. crude oil production will appear more obvious decline is expected in 2016 U.S. crude oil production rate of 600 thousand barrels per day, of which 700 thousand barrels a day of oil shale, and the Mexico Bay area 100 thousand barrels a day. From the time point of supply side contraction, supply improvement still takes time. Spring maintenance is still ongoing, refinery maintenance in the United States concentrated in spring and autumn, respectively, 2 – March and 10 – November. In the past 5 years, during the spring overhaul, the average operating rate has decreased by 5.5%. In 2016 the United States refinery spring maintenance larger, PIRA Energy Group is expected to peak in January March, the maintenance and overhaul in April, the scale was 1 million 870 thousand barrels per day, 1 million 760 thousand barrels and 1 million 810 thousand barrels per day, 1 – April average maintenance scale of 1 million 740 thousand barrels per day, close to the refining capacity of 10% of the nation, far higher than the planned overhaul last year over the same period. At present, the U.S. refineries in the first quarter overhaul are mainly distributed in the Gulf of Mexico, the Midwest and the eastern United states,.

原油 产量冻结不等于减产   多哈闭门会议过后,原油价格在底部区间大幅波动,波动率明显加大。不过,笔者认为,产量冻结不等于减产,实际效果有限,再加上炼厂春季检修,原油市场基本面并未出现实质性好转。   产量冻结协议效果有限   上周二多哈闭门会议结束,沙特、委内瑞拉、卡塔尔、俄罗斯同意产量将冻结在1月11日的水平,且俄罗斯表示与其他产油国的谈判将于3月1日结束。随后,伊拉克、科威特、阿联酋等产油国纷纷表示支持产量冻结协议。不过,值得注意的是,尽管伊朗与利比亚声称支持该协议,但均有恢复至制裁前或战前水平的前提。   产量冻结协议的效果有限,主要体现在两方面:其一,此前市场预期2016年OPEC主要可变增量来自伊朗和利比亚,按目前两国的态度,其仍有100万桶 日的潜在增量,完全可填补原油产量下滑的部分;其二,截至1月底,OPEC与俄罗斯产油量均处于历史高位,若冻结产量标准为1月11日的水平,实际上几乎是没有减产的。因此,产量冻结协议更多影响了市场信心,除非伊朗与利比亚无限定条件加入产量冻结协议,不然全球原油供给仍处于宽松状态。   北美减产效应二季度末才会体现   从北美原油生产企业资本支出与钻井投资情况看,进入2016年,削减资本支出的现象频繁出现,这直接导致钻井数量显著下滑。截至2月18日,美国原油钻机数量已由2014年的峰值1590台下滑至413台。另外,近25周中,有23周钻井数量是下降的,总降幅已超过70%。受此影响,美国原油产量回落至913万桶 日附近。考虑到钻井数量下降传导至产量一般需要8个月,则二季度末美国原油产量才会出现较为明显的下滑,预计2016年美国原油减产幅度为60万桶 日,其中页岩油减产70万桶 日,而墨西哥湾地区增产10万桶 日。从供给侧收缩的时间节点来看,供给改善仍需时日。   春季检修仍在继续   美国炼厂检修集中在春季和秋季,分别为2―3月和10―11月。过去5年,春季检修时,开工率平均下滑5.5%。2016年美国炼厂春季检修规模更大,PIRA Energy Group预计,检修高峰出现在1月、3月和4月,检修规模分别为187万桶 日、176万桶 日和181万桶 日,1―4月平均检修规模为174万桶 日,接近全美炼油能力的10%,远高于去年同期的计划检修量。   目前来看,一季度检修的美国炼厂主要分布在墨西哥湾、美国中西部和东部地区,其中墨西哥湾地区检修占到总检修规模的35%。二季度墨西哥湾地区检修量逐步下降,但中西部地区检修量将大幅提升至50万桶 日,占全美检修规模的三分之一。   美国春季检修期间,原油需求放缓。随着检修的深入,原油端库存压力大于成品油端。   综上所述,近期产量冻结协议更多影响的是市场信心层面,对原油市场供需格局的影响有限,加之一季度供给出清较慢,需求因炼厂检修难以大幅释放,原油价格将持续低位徘徊。 (作者单位:中大期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章: