Steel prices high market difficult to have sequel-cosmax

Steel prices are difficult to have a "sequel" by the steel industry to implement the "supply side reform" is expected to stimulate, since last December, steel prices eye-catching performance, the highest increase of 15%. During the Spring Festival holiday, outside the stock market and commodities such as copper, crude oil fell sharply, but after the first day of trading steel futures Dikaigaozou, a Changyang break through the oscillation along the platform momentum. The author believes that the current multi bad steel prices rise resistance. Weak macroeconomic superposition contradiction between funds first, China January 2016 manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than last month, for the 6 consecutive month below the line ups and downs. In January the new financial Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4, for eleventh consecutive months below the line ups and downs. These data show that the manufacturing situation is extremely grim. Secondly, the phenomenon of the limited loan and credit of the iron and steel industry will continue, the devaluation of the RMB leads to the outflow of funds, the rising interest rate of funds, the financing cost and difficulty of the steel enterprises, and the possibility of further deterioration of the industry funds. Moreover, the sharp decline in the stock market exacerbated investors’ worries about the financial market and played a role in suppressing the price of steel. Finally, exchange rate volatility of financial risk China triggered a global concern, the central bank [micro-blog] to ease the exchange market pressure, had to adjust monetary policy regulation, adopt a more flexible open market operations to release liquidity, reduce interest rates, drop quasi expected. After shrinking downstream demand situation is difficult to change on the one hand, according to the Convention, the Spring Festival, the site will gradually return to work until the end of February, the steel market sales are sluggish, the demand for short-term release co.. In particular, the lack of investment in real estate investment with the effect of infrastructure investment is limited, it is difficult to support prices continued to rise. On the other hand, in the background of supply side reform, real estate investment growth continued to fall, the new construction area of real estate, land acquisition area up sharply, the real estate investment facing high inventory pressure, short-term is difficult to have a substantial improvement. Therefore, the medium-term demand beyond the category of seasonal factors difficult to improve, steel prices rise difficult to continue. After the release of steel production capacity will rebound in late January 2016, China Steel Association iron and steel enterprises Nissan crude steel 1 million 505 thousand and 700 tons, 7 thousand and 900 tons less than the middle, a decline of 0.52%. According to this estimate, the crude steel output per ton of China in January 2016 is 1 million 997 thousand and 100 tons, which is 0.75% lower than that in the middle of the year. The author believes that this may be related to the increase of steel maintenance before and after the spring festival. Since mid December last year, a rebound in steel prices, steel industry business conditions improved slightly, part of the steel production and stock enthusiasm have improved. The late steel production will accelerate the progress of building materials, and difficult to recover quickly after demand, steel prices are expected to pressures facing the callback. Factory price from fall to rise to support certain, with the help of price rebound to achieve profitability of the steel enterprises, they will have a strong desire before the Spring Festival, which is reflected in the price policy of steel enterprises. To the East China market as an example, the wing Shagang, late January price increase 50 yuan per ton, zhongtian.

钢价冲高行情难有“续集”   受钢铁业落实“供给侧改革”预期刺激,去年12月以来,钢价表现抢眼,最高涨幅达15%。春节长假期间,外盘股市和铜、原油等商品大幅下挫,但节后首个交易日螺纹钢期货低开高走,一根长阳有冲破振荡平台上沿的势头。笔者认为,当前多重利空对钢价上升势头产生阻力。   宏观经济疲弱叠加资金紧张矛盾   首先,2016年1月中国制造业PMI为49.4%,低于上月0.3个百分点,为连续6个月低于荣枯线。1月财新中国制造业PMI升至48.4,为连续第11个月低于荣枯线。这些数据表明制造业形势异常严峻。   其次,银行对钢铁行业限贷、抽贷的现象仍将延续,人民币大幅贬值导致资金外流加剧,资金利率抬升,钢企融资成本及难度提高,行业资金面存在进一步恶化的可能。   再者,股市大幅下跌加剧了投资者对金融市场的担忧,对打压钢价起到推波助澜的作用。   最后,汇率大幅波动引发全球对中国发生金融风险的担忧,央行[微博]为缓解外汇市场压力,不得不调整货币政策调控方式,采取更为灵活的公开市场操作释放流动性,降低了降息、降准的预期。   下游需求萎缩状况难以改观   一方面,按照惯例,春节过后,工地要到2月底才会逐渐复工,钢材市场销售不畅,需求短期释放有限。尤其是缺乏房产投资回暖配合的基建投资效果有限,难以支撑价格持续上涨。   另一方面,在供给侧改革的大背景下,房产投资增速持续回落,房地产新开工面积、土地购置面积同比大幅下降,房产投资面对高库存压力,短期难有实质性改善。   因此,中期超出季节性因素范畴的需求好转难以显现,钢价拉涨很难持续。   节后产能释放将遏制钢价反弹   2016年1月下旬,中钢协会员钢铁企业日产粗钢150.57万吨,比中旬减少0.79万吨,降幅为0.52%。据此估算,2016年1月下旬全国日产粗钢199.71万吨,比中旬降低0.75%。笔者认为,这或许与春节前后钢厂检修增多有关。   由于去年12月中旬以来钢价出现一轮回升,钢铁行业经营状况略有好转,部分钢厂生产及备料积极性均有所提升。后期钢厂复产进度将加快,而建材需求节后难以快速恢复,预计钢价将面临回调压力。   出厂价由跌转涨产生一定支撑   对于借助价格反弹实现盈利的钢企而言,他们春节前挺价意愿强烈,这一点在钢企的价格政策中有所体现。以华东市场为例,沙钢、永钢把1月下旬出厂价格上调50元 吨,中天钢铁上调20―50元 吨。钢厂挺价一定程度上将对钢价平稳运行起到保驾护航作用。   整体来看,沪钢持续大幅上涨的基础并不牢固。短期内,宏观经济减速和需求持续萎缩、原油下挫、股市疲弱依然是不争的事实。因此,春节后钢市难出现新的起色,价格将以盘整为主,不会出现明显的反弹行情。   (作者单位:大有期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。相关的主题文章: