Backtesting Secrets Revealed Part 1-puritans pride

Business Backtesting Secrets Revealed with The Ultimate Trade Analyzer Part 1 Troy Noonan: …for you and it’s my pleasure to share this with you because it’s something very dear to my heart. It’s what turned my trading around and a lot of people that I’ve coached, and hopefully, it’s going to help each and every one of you in some way, shape or form. I want to encourage everyone to stick around too because at the end of this I’m going to actually be giving you the software that I’m about to show you and I’m going to give it to you free. So free gift from Net Picks. It’s very valuable if you use it properly and that’s what this webinar is about, really, is showing you how to use it property. We’ll talk about why it’s so important. And at any time throughout this presentation, if you have any question, go ahead and type it in. And at some point, probably near the end, I’ll circle back around and see if I could answer your questions. So you go ahead and type them in any time and then we’ll just go through them at the end. A couple of other announcements. One, is that we’ve got this awesome new presentation. Another freebie and it’s going to be really great. I’m signing up for it too. I actually can’t wait for it. And I’m going to tell you all about that one as well near the end of the session. So make sure you stick around for that as well. So a couple of free goodies for you guys just for sticking around and, hopefully, more than that because the information I’m going to share with you will also, hopefully, be of some significant value. So let’s just go ahead and jump right in. I’m going to try to wrap this up within an hour if possible. I got a lot to cover. So what I’m going to show you today is a tool that we call the Ultimate Trade Analyzer. Just really quick, most of you know who we are but in case you don’t, we were founded in 1996 and we’re now on our close to 17th year actually. This is an old slide. We’ve developed the UTM, the UMT, the UST, the HVMM and, of course, the SST, Keltner Bells, and now, the SST Pro which we are very pleased. This was launched a week or two ago. I’m really thrilled about that. And we’ve trained not 5,000 but close to 10,000 traders worldwide. And the UTA, what I’m going to show you now is the must have tool for any of our course owners. It doesn’t matter what system you’re trading, if you’re trading under the old Net Picks systems or the new or even any of your own ideas. In fact, it’s maybe your own ideas that you will find that this tool is indispensable and of most value. It’s actually this tool, is what I used to create the SST. So that should speak volumes by itself. So let’s just ask a few quick questions here to get our minds in the right place so that when I jump in to showing this to you you’ll be thinking the way you should be thinking. So just ask yourself these questions for a second with me and see if this is going to help your trading if you have answers to any of these questions. So, here we go. What if you knew the best times of day to trade? Markets are 24 hour business these days. Do we want to be glued to the computer? I don’t think so. I think we want to trade to make a better life for ourselves and a better life is away from the computer, at least in my opinion, it is. So knowing the best times of day to trade is pretty critical, wouldn’t you say? What if you knew the best days of the week? I mean if you only could trade — if you only — if you had a trade plan where you could show up trade 30 minutes on a Wednesday and that’s it and you can make a leaving doing that, would that be of value to anybody? Are you guys seeing the slides? You should be seeing the slides. I see some people saying they can’t see the slides. I don’t know if you need to log out or log in again. All right. Let’s continue. What if you knew the exact risk you should take on every single trade? The problem that most people have is that they over leverage. They put on way too much risk, the brokers give you 50 to 1 margin, it’s very tempting to use it. You start believing the get-rich-quick schemes and the dream of trading and being able to retire to be able to fire your boss. Well, guess what. It doesn’t happen by using that kind of leverage. Even if you’re winning 90% of the time, those 10% losses are going to come around. And if you over leveraged, two, three losses in a row, you wipe yourself out even though your system is the best trade system on the planet. So you have to know the exact risk to put on to each and every trade. This is a critical question you need answers to. What if you knew the exact position size per trade? I mean this kind of goes into the same question, risk, position size. It’s all related. What if you knew whether to take a reentry trade, whether you should trail a trade or avoid them all together and make those decisions with confidence? Let’s face it. We’re at the right edge of the chart, we’re looking out into the great blackness to the right. We don’t know what’s going to happen next, do we? We have to put the odds in our favor and make a trade with an educate guess at best. So you want to make the best guess you can and you want to make it with confidence and that’s where you cross over the line from gambling to actually making a business out of putting the probabilities in your favor. How much more profitable would you be if you had the answers to these questions? Just keep going. What if you knew when to stop trading each day? What if you knew when to avoid news or to trade through news? What if you knew if you knew if the afternoon trading was better or morning trading? That’s a pretty valuable question to have an answer. What if you knew the profit factor for every trade type? Does everyone know what the profit factor is? There are some real important statistics that you need to be paying attention to. And I would guess that many of you either don’t know what it is or don’t pay much attention to the key statistics. What if you knew you could trade less and make more? Quality versus quantity. Would that be valuable? How much more time could you save? Time is money, right? We want to have a better life from trading. You got to answer these questions intelligently and accurately. What if you knew when to stay with the market? What if you knew exactly when it was time to change markets or timed trades, even? That’s one of the trickiest things. How do you know if you’re just in a draw down or if your plan is just not working anymore? You might find out it’s not working when it’s too late. 20/20 vision and hindsight. We all have that but that doesn’t help us when we’re at the right digit at the chart. What if you knew exactly how much risk to take? What if you knew when to be patient? And when do you allow your system to recover? And where do you stand at all times? How much more confident would you be? If you don’t have confidence, that means you don’t believe in your trading, you don’t believe in your trade system. You can’t trade at it as intended and the results you get are probably not going to be favorable. All right. So if you could do all these with push-button simplicity — well, you can, actually, with the UTA. And best of all you could use it with a system and strategy that you’re using today. You really don’t have anything new to learn except how to use the UTA. How much would that be worth to you? Well, we’re giving it to you free. I answered a lot of my what-ifs. I learned I could make more profit stopping at 10:30 instead of 11:30 with crude oil. I could monitor my profit factor winning percentage and expectations on every trade. I learned I make more profit starting at 9:30 rather than 7:00 a.m. on the pound dollar with my trade plan. I learned to not trade before report on Wednesday and to start exactly two minutes after with crude oil. I learned to stop trading reentries on certain markets. And I learned that to use the power of quitting with two winners in the a.m. and to use a power of quitting with one winner in the p.m. Does everyone know the power of quitting is? It’s a very important concept. It’s actually a dynamic goal setting strategy. It allows you to take what the market wants to give you, not what you want from the market while also moving your account forward on a regular basis. So the power of quitting usually means you try to get two winners have a positive result and then you quit for the session. It’s dynamic. Well, in the afternoon I learned that going for the one win in positive was far more profitable on the Russell eMini for example. I learned that with these changes my win rate went up, my average gain per trade went up, I spent lest time in the market, I had more confidence in my decision and I literally changed my trade plan fairly dramatically by knowing my numbers. Your trade data is a wealth of information. Most traders never unlock this information. The traders that do have a huge advantage. It’s a difference between flying with vision or flying blind. Trade decisions should be made with factual detail to back them up. A lot of people just shoot from the hip and make decisions that feel right. But let’s face it. We’re human beings and we’re intuitive and a lot of what makes traders successful is being able to take the counter intuitive track. It usually what works. There’s never a guarantee in trading but you can put the odds in your favor by analyzing your trade data. And if you put the odds in your favor, you’re like the casino, you got the house odds on your side. That’s how we determine our edge which is where we make our money trading. Okay. So did everybody kind of agree with those statements, in what I just said? A lot of you know this already. Some of you have heard this before. Some of these concepts might actually be new ideas. If there’s anything in here that’s got you scratching your head, that’s good because I want you to think about these things as I show you now the UTA, and the really cool tool that we’re going to be giving to you at the end of this presentation for free. This could be something that will change your trading forever and for the better. So let me just pull it over. Everyone can see that. Okay. This is the simplified version of the UTA. There is also a more professional version. Of course, the professional version isn’t free. This version is. But it’s okay because this version is packed with all the information that you’re going to need. And if you ever do decide to go to the pro version, you’ll be able to copy over your trade data and have a real simple pathway right into the pro version. So, you know, whether you decide to do that or not is going to be totally up to you. I’ll show you how you can do it if you’d like. Many of you already have the pro version. So first of all, let me just kind of explain to you what we’re looking at. Many of you have probably heard that it’s very wise to keep a trade journal or trade log. You can use this tool as a trade journal as well and you could literally plot and pose every single trade that either you’re taking or your testing, you could back-test, you could forward-test. There are so many great things you can do with the UTA. We’re looking at, you know, some random snapshot of trades that I was back-testing back in the day when I was creating the SST trade system, the Seven Summits Trader trade system. And I began testing it with crude oil with a 610 tick chart. Okay? And that’s what we’re looking at. We’re looking at the original data that I used to create the SST. So you can see it’s all the way back in ’09. When you get this piece of software, it’s going to come pre-populated with this trade data. Okay? So you will have something that you can use, that you could practice with, that you can jump around and utilize the features, to learn how all the cool tools that this gives you, how it all works. Okay? So when you get this, make sure the first thing you do is go to File, Save As and give it a new name. Okay? So that you can preserve — you could preserve your original as a template and you work with a copy. All right? You’re going to need Excel 2003 or 2007. And I believe it also works on 2010. All right? You’re going to need one of those three versions. It’s not going to work on anything else. So these older versions are easy to get your hands on. You can find them online, whatever. It’s worth it even if it’s just for using this software, this UTA. All right? So let me get that question answered right away. So let me just scroll up to the top. You could see there’s a lot of trades in here. You always want to leave line number 29 blank. This doesn’t make sense to you yet but it will as I start showing you how to use this. You’ll see on row 28, there’s a green row and a little statement in red that says, “Leave 29 blank.” The reason why is because sometimes you’ll want to refresh your formulas with this button right here, Refresh Formulas. And it’s going to pull all the formulas from row 29. All right? So that’s something that you have to remember to do. To obtain your free backtesting software, The Ultimate Trade Analyzer Simple, and follow along, visit .ultimatetradeanalyzer.com/simple-download. For more free day trading educational webinars visit .netpicks.com/learning-center/training-webinars. Stay tuned for the rest of this 6 –part series, or if you simply cannot wait, watch the entire webinar here: ..netpicks../trading-tips/webinar-recording-backtesting-secrets-revealed-with-the-ultimate-trade-analzyer/ About the Author: 相关的主题文章: